This article is concise, readable, and to my eye, has gathered a lot of what I was gathering from many different sources and placed it in one ten minute read. It includes a couple of super interesting diagrams of how the virus spreads in a room.
"It seems many people are breathing some relief, and I’m not sure why. An epidemic curve has a relatively predictable upslope and once the peak is reached, the back slope is also predictable. Assuming we have just crested in deaths at 70k, that would mean that if we stay locked down, we lose another 70,000 people over the next 6 weeks as we come off that peak. That's what's going to happen with a lockdown.
As states reopen, and we give the virus more fuel, all bets are off. I understand the reasons for reopening the economy, but I've said before, if you don't solve the biology, the economy won't recover.
There are very few states that have demonstrated a sustained decline in numbers of new infections. Indeed, the majority are still increasing and reopening. [As an example of what the author is talking about, the 862 cases that Indiana reported for May 5 is the 2nd highest number we have reported. Only the 963 cases for April 26 exceeds it.] As a simple example of the USA trend, when you take out the data from New York and just look at the rest of the USA, daily case numbers are increasing. Bottom line: the only reason the total USA new case numbers look flat right now is because the New York City epidemic was so large and now it is being contained.
[There is a wonderful graph that I could not get to cut and paste into this space available in the original paper at the URL.]
So throughout most of the country we are going to add fuel to the viral fire by reopening. It's going to happen if I like it or not, so my goal here is to try to guide you away from situations of high risk."
The URL is behind the "Read More" break if you want the details.
Thanks to my brother for coming across this article and forwarding it to me.
"It seems many people are breathing some relief, and I’m not sure why. An epidemic curve has a relatively predictable upslope and once the peak is reached, the back slope is also predictable. Assuming we have just crested in deaths at 70k, that would mean that if we stay locked down, we lose another 70,000 people over the next 6 weeks as we come off that peak. That's what's going to happen with a lockdown.
As states reopen, and we give the virus more fuel, all bets are off. I understand the reasons for reopening the economy, but I've said before, if you don't solve the biology, the economy won't recover.
There are very few states that have demonstrated a sustained decline in numbers of new infections. Indeed, the majority are still increasing and reopening. [As an example of what the author is talking about, the 862 cases that Indiana reported for May 5 is the 2nd highest number we have reported. Only the 963 cases for April 26 exceeds it.] As a simple example of the USA trend, when you take out the data from New York and just look at the rest of the USA, daily case numbers are increasing. Bottom line: the only reason the total USA new case numbers look flat right now is because the New York City epidemic was so large and now it is being contained.
[There is a wonderful graph that I could not get to cut and paste into this space available in the original paper at the URL.]
So throughout most of the country we are going to add fuel to the viral fire by reopening. It's going to happen if I like it or not, so my goal here is to try to guide you away from situations of high risk."
The URL is behind the "Read More" break if you want the details.
Thanks to my brother for coming across this article and forwarding it to me.
Who knew this was going to be a science blog.
Remember the formulae: Successful Infection = Exposure to Virus x Time
https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them?fbclid=IwAR3or6yDXMSVrgcgJdh6sgI07R0eyNu_JmVvAnVgMxiq6tikFnPYbjVDHHA
Remember the formulae: Successful Infection = Exposure to Virus x Time
https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them?fbclid=IwAR3or6yDXMSVrgcgJdh6sgI07R0eyNu_JmVvAnVgMxiq6tikFnPYbjVDHHA
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